South Africa

Main findings

2050 projections of power and industrial high temperature heating sectors:

• Projected no-action emissions based on current energy mix: 254.4 MtCO2e /year+

• Maximum mitigation potential: 254.4 MtCO2e /year

• Most important needle-movers are onshore and offshore wind coupled with ammonia storage.

• South Africa has an average saving of achieving zero emissions with only domestic measures of USD 10.9/tCO2e (shown as a negative “additional cost”) compared to BAU no action scenario.§

In international collaboration, critical technologies such as PV and wind energy significantly contribute to reducing mitigation costs. The addition of HVDC cables further optimizes the energy mix by allowing access to renewable resources from collaboration. Ammonia storage also contributes to the stability of the system, potentially facilitating lower mitigation costs by providing an exportable form of energy that can be transported and utilized across borders.

+Emissions are the annualized value for a 30-year project starting in 2050 (i.e., divided by 30 from the total project emissions)

§A negative value for cost of achieving net zero with only domestic measures implies that BAU-No Action scenario assuming current energy mix leads to a more expensive system than when investing in zero-carbon power generation for this country. Please see Country-specific notes on Methodology - National and Collaboration Modelling (STEVFNs) section below for detailed information on assumptions leading to this result.