GMPA - Methodology

What is mitigation potential?

The concept of “mitigation potential” has been developed to assess the quantity of net greenhouse gas emission reductions that can be achieved by a given mitigation option relative to specified emission baselines.1 For the purpose of the GMPA pilot, we apply the definitions provided in the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (see also figure below for illustrating estimated potentials at global scale).

Biogeophysical potential

The mitigation potential constrained by biological, geophysical and geochemical limits and thermodynamics, without taking into account technical, social, economic and/or environmental considerations.

Technical potential

The mitigation potential constrained by biogeophysical limits as well as availability of technologies and practices. Quantification of technical potentials takes into account primarily technical considerations, but social, economic and/or environmental considerations are occasionally also included, if these represent strong barriers for the deployment of an option.

Economic potential

The portion of the technical potential for which the social benefits exceed the social costs, taking into account a social discount rate and the value of externalities.

Data collection and modeling in the pilot phase focused on defining Technical potentials at specific cost levels, accounting for capital and operational & maintenance cost. Biogeophysical potentials were collected and calculated first and provide input to the modeling of Technical potentials. Economic potentials follow from the full scope of Technical potentials by identifying the point where benefits balance costs. While this project focuses on national potentials and potentials from collaboration between nations, the IPCC figure below illustrates at a global scale that for Wind and Solar energy in particular, large emissions reductions can be achieved at net zero cost.

Figure 1: Overview of mitigation options and their estimated ranges of costs and potentials in 2030 at the global scale.

Figure SPM.7 from IPCC (2022) "Mitigation of Climate Change" Working Group III Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.